Adaptation - Introduction: Sudan’s communication of an adaptation component within its INDC (A-INDC)

is based on Decision 1/CP.20 of the “Lima Call for Climate Action” which “Invites all Parties to consider communicating their undertakings in adaptation planning or consider including an adaptation component in their intended nationally determined contributions” (Lima Call for Climate Action, Decision 1/CP.20, paragraph 12). As an LDC and African country, Sudan is amongst the most vulnerable countries to the adverse effects of climate change. As such, adaptation is the first and overriding priority of Sudan’s climate actions and hence constitutes a major part of Sudan’s INDC. Sudan’s A-INDC is informed by and builds on its current commitments under Article 4.1 of the Convention, with the understanding that provisions, particularly Articles 4.3, 4.4 and 4.7 are being applied, i.e. full incremental costs being provided by Annex II Parties, as well as provisions under Article 12 in relation to adaptation. It also builds on the various adaptation-related mechanisms and processes under the Convention, including, above all, Sudan’s NAPA (2007), Sudan’s INC and SNC (2003; 2012), TNA (2013), and particularly Sudan’s NAP.

Aim/Objective

The overall aim of Sudan’s INDC is based on the objective of Sudan’s NAP, i.e. to contribute to sustainable development and reduce poverty by reducing the long-term negative impacts of climate change. Having recognized the implications climate change can have on national development the need for climate change adaptation in the context of sustainable development was identified as an area of major concern. As such Sudan’s A-INDC is being prepared with the view and in the context of achieving economic and sustainable development and poverty
reduction in line with Sudan’s 25-year development strategy, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It, thereby, comprises of Sudan’s assessment of needs, priorities, capabilities and benefits to develop nationally determined priorities and plans for adaptation.

Scope

The scope of Sudan’s A-INDC is focused on a sector – and state -level based approach to reduce vulnerability. The sectors include water, agriculture (both livestock and crop production systems), coastal zone and human health. With the development of Sudan’s NAP each of Sudan’s 18 states undertook vulnerability assessments of these sectors and identified adaptation priorities that are informed by and build upon state-level development. These will serve the basis of information for Sudan’s A-INDC.
In addition, Sudan’s A-INDC will entail intended contributions around 1. Adaptation policies and measures, and planning (e.g. NAPA, NAP), including prioritizing interventions for implementation and integrating adaptation into development planning; 2. Strengthening institutional capacity at the state and federal level; 3. Implementation of adaptation initiatives
• Continued implementation of urgent and immediate needs as identified in
Sudan’s NAPA;
• Implementation of adaptation programmes and projects in the most vulnerable sectors and states as identified in the NAP; 4. Enhancing research, observation systems and climate modeling to better focus targeted A-action across sectors and state level; and 5. Increasing public awareness.
Baseline

The baseline serving the development of Sudan’s A-INDC is based on assumptions as well as sector- and state-based vulnerability assessments undertaken in Sudan’s NAP, NAPA as well as national communications and other national studies and research. Sudan’s NAP undertook state-level vulnerability assessments to 1) characterize vulnerability to climate change in the sectors of agriculture, water and health and 2) identify adaptation strategies to reduce these vulnerabilities (NAP, 2014). The approach for conducting the vulnerability and adaptation assessments is based on a bottom-up approach and consists of four main steps: 1. Capacity Building of actors and institutions at the state level including training programmes on vulnerability assessments; 2. Vulnerability assessments in each state, including taking stock of all relevant research and studies, and stakeholder consultations taking into account both climatic and nonclimatic factors determining vulnerability of the key vulnerable sectors; 3. Adaptation assessments, including identifying adaptation needs to reduce vulnerabilities at the state and sectorial level, predominantly through stakeholder consultations; 4. Public awareness through regional and state level workshops to 1) validate the vulnerability and adaptation assessments, 2) identify areas of synergies with national and state-level development planning, and 3) develop implementation strategies and discuss ways forward.

The impacts of climate change for Sudan’s most vulnerable sectors are as follows:

Agriculture:Traditional subsistence agriculture dominates the Sudanese economy with over 70% of the population dependent upon crop production and/or livestock husbandry to support their livelihoods. Combined with growing socioeconomic pressures, the imposition of climate variability and climate change is intensifying the ongoing process of desertification of arable areas. Humid agro climatic zones are shifting southward, rendering vast arable lands increasingly unsuitable for agriculture production. Crop production is declining and predicted to decline substantially for millet and sorghum as well as other cash crops. The area of arable land as well as the Gum Arabic belt and its traditional livelihoods production and pastoral systems are all degrading and decreasing in ability to support livelihoods of dependent communities, with attendant impacts on both local incomes and food security, which is further expected to drop;
Water Resources: Reduced groundwater recharge – either through decreased precipitation or increased temperature and evaporation – has grave repercussions for Sudan. National studies have shown that soil moisture would further decline under future climate change. When coupled with increased water consumption, population growth, high variation in rainfall and the high rate of evaporation, a looming water crisis appears likely. Regarding the river Nile there is a clear finding that under many climatic scenarios, water flow in the Nile River will decrease considerably, between 20% and 30% over the next 40 years.
Coastal Zone Sudan’s coastal zone faces several major climate-related hazards, namely sea level rise, increase of seawater temperature and salinity changes in addition to storm surge intensification. Evidence shows that these climatic changes might resulted in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality decline in mangroves, remobilizing the fine sediments of salt marshes, increasing coastal turbidity which in turn affecting sea grasses, coral reefs and other marine biota.
Public Health: Communities in Sudan are exposed to significantly increased risk of malaria under climate change. Studies in Kordofan State, for example, have shown that the risk of transmission potential could increase substantially by 2060. This is already being realized, and further expected not only to overburdened health care systems, which is under extreme stress, but the disease would exact a heavy toll on local communities.
Planning Process Mitigation and adaptation actions are implemented across the various sectors at both the national and states administrative levels. The Framework of National Appropriate Mitigation Actions and the National Adaptation Planning process being undertaken by Government provides a good basis for long- term adaptation and mitigation programming and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation/mitigation into the existing national planning processes. Sudan has taken concrete actions and showed political will to address and minimize the risks posed by climate change to its communities, natural resources and economy by identifying and implementing adaptation measures while pursing low-carbon development strategies to spur its local and national economy in a sustainable manner. Sudan’s Initial National Communication (INC) to the UNFCCC identified agriculture, water resources and public health as most vulnerable sectors to climate change and climate variability. SSNC (2012) further identified coastal zones as an increasingly vulnerable sector that needs to be considered in climate change adaptation actions.
With the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) Sudan’s adaptation engagement was brought to a different level (2007) as it initiated building a solid base to take systematic adaptation planning and implementation, including through stakeholder engagement, raising public awareness, and building individual and institutional capacities in the Sudanese context that set the basis for further adaptation action. Sudan’s NAPA is the first adaptation plan prepared to enable Sudan to access funds made available through the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to implement real adaptation actions on ground. The overall goal of the NAPA preparation process was to identify urgent and immediate activities to address climate variability and climate change within the context of the country’s economic development priorities. Sudan’s NAPA identified 32 urgent and immediate adaptation initiatives in the four states River Nile, Gedarif, South Darfur and North Kordofan, representing five different ecological zones.
In addition, in response to the Cancun Adaptation Framework (CAF, 2010), Sudan launched a process for a NAP in line with its National Implementation Strategy (INC, 2003). Sudan is currently in the final stage of developing its NAP which is currently subject to Ministerial endorsement. Sudan’s NAP aims to integrate climate risks into all national development planning processes and reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, by building adaptive capacity and resilience. As such, Sudan’s NAP process includes assessment of vulnerability and adaptation in all Sudan’s States, covering the main development sectors, such as water, agriculture, health and coastal zone.
Sudan has conducted its Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) for adaption and mitigation in 2013. For mitigation the TNAs covers energy, industry and forestry sectors while two priority sectors have been covered with regard to technology for adaptation, namely agriculture and water sectors. The TNAs resulted in a Technology Action Plan (TAP), which includes some priorities with regard to technology transfer for enhancing national actions on adaptation and mitigation At national level line ministries developed climate change related polices such as the Agricultural Revival Program (ARP) of 2008 –2011 and the five year economic reform programme 2015- 2019. The Forest Policy, (2006) supports climate resilient livelihoods via encouraging income diversification, facilitating microfinance and providing access to land (Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, 2012). The Natural Resource Management policy is part of the development plan of the state, which is in line with Sudan's national policy. The policy provides clear guidelines for local rehabilitation. This made local communities becoming more aware of the importance of sustainable resources management. Mainstreaming adaptation and enhancing adaptive capacity could be increased by encouraging partnerships between informal processes and formal interventions to facilitate adaptation. In terms of mitigation, Sudan aims towards achieving quicker economic growth rates in a sustainable manner. In line with this Sudan intends to undertake measures across a number of sectors of its economy to pursue low-carbon development, guided by the long-term national development policies, plans and strategies, which are clearly stated in different national development planning documents such as the Strategic Plan document 2007-2033. In addition, it incorporates the outcome of further analysis and consultation to enhance Sudan’s existing plans, in particular the assessment of the potential economic sectors that lead towards a low carbon development strategy. Sudan has also prepared a proposal for a low-carbon development strategy, how its implementation still pending access to international climate funding.
Means of Implementation Despite being committed to and meeting its obligations under the Convention, however due to some political and unilateral sanctions by some developed countries Sudan was not successful in accessing bilateral sources of climate finance, which is currently the major source for funding climate action in developing countries. This situation leaves Sudan even more vulnerable to the devastating consequences of climate change impacts on its people and natural systems upon which their livelihoods depend. Sudan is currently implementing some key urgent and immediate adaptation initiatives as identified based on the NAPA only in six states out 18 vulnerable states, based on resources from the LDCF and substantial local contributions from the participating states and the national government. However, these are far from match the magnitude of Sudan’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Sudan also implementing some mitigation priorities on renewable energy (solar, wind) as will as forestry mitigation projects using its STAR GEF allocation, which is limited funding to create an ambition contribution to required global climate mitigation efforts. Implementing the communicated intended contributions requires an overall investment estimated up to 2025 for adaptation and up to 2030 for mitigation based on current sectoral plans. The required resources to be mobilized through climate finance mechanisms under the UNFCCC such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF), GEF and other climate related bilateral, multilateral and domestic financing including the private sector investment.
The international support required to implement the intended contribution in terms of finance, technology and capacity building, over a cycle of contributions of 5-10 years, amount to a total of 12.88 USD billions, of which 1.2 billions USD$ for adaptation and 11.68 billions for mitigation. This amount is required to be met from all possible and accessible international climate finance sources. In addition the national and states’ government will provide local contributions within their regular and development budgets, national resources and priorities permitting as demonstrated in the case of the current GEF (LDCF/STAR) funded adaptation and mitigation projects. Further development and elaboration of contributions and assessment of costs will be necessary to refine the required investment for implementing such programmes and actions.