I don’t envisage any possibility of a military attack or invasion by Egypt for a simple reason that till now Sudan
is not accused by giving any assistance to the terrorist groups which attacked the Coptic citizens in Egypt lat Month. Egyptian two incidents managed to transcend wisely although any one of which warranted immediate retaliation. One on 1957 when Sudan Prime Miniser Abdallah Khalil challenged the Egyptian regime of Abdul Nassir by sending troops to the disputed area of Halayeb (till now unresolved). There was a dreadful standoff between the Egyptian army and the Sudanese. Abdul Nassir ordered his troops to stand-down and withdraw. He was quoted as saying:”we cannot fight and kill our own people in Sudan”
The second on 1995 when President Mubarak narrowly escaped assassination in Addis Ababa when his motorcade was attacked by machine guns minutes after leaving Addis airport enroute to AU-HQ. It was proven that some Sudanese masterminded and conducted the attack. Mubarak said: “Some Sudanese in the government planned and executed the plot.” He added “I can reach Khartoum and change the regime in half an hour.” He did not say more than this and the relation went smooth and friendly.
Historically since the Kushite Kingdom (1070 BC – 350 AD) Egypt did not attach Sudan. On the contrary, after King Kashta invaded Egypt in the eighth century BC, the Kushite Kings ruled as pharaohs of the twenty-fifth dynasty of Egypt for one century before being defeated and driven out by the Assyrians. Egypt had deep and important role in almost all systems and regimes which ruled Sudan since 1956. All political movements came from Egypt, Unionists, Communists, and Muslim Brotherhood. The three ruled Sudan for varying periods – Unionist under Azharai ruled for 6 years in two separated terms (1954 – 1957 and 1965 – 1968), Communists for two years (1969 – 1971) and Muslim Brothers for 28 years (1989 –to date). Egypt was a close ally to the first two and played a pivotal role in ascertaining the success of the salvation coup on June 30, 1989 by its early recognition and its call on Gulf leaders to follow suit.
Egypt played a decisive role in granting Sudan independence. It was the second partner in the condominium which ruled Sudan from 1898 – 1956. The other partner was Britain. Britain was reluctant to grant Sudan the self-determination right in 1954 for fear of uniting with Egypt. Egypt was adamant in its demand to annex Sudan in one united Arab country. The decisive role was on 1854 when Abdul Nasir, President of Egypt , withdrawal of British troops from Suez canal. Since then Egypt was directly involved changes and military coups:
1. It supported the DUP party under Azhari till it won the first general election in 1853. Azhari became the first national ruler of Sudan. he was pro-Egypt union.
2. It supported the first coup of General Abboud of November 1958. Abboud regime created friendly relation with Egypt. They agreed to amend the Nile agreement of 1929 to a new one on 1959 which granted Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters and Sudan 18.5 out of 85 million cubic meters being the annual water flow in the Nile of which 71 million comes from Blue Nile – Ethiopia and 14 billion from the White Nile. Abboud regime also accepted the construction of the High Dam of Egypt at very unfair compensation to Sudan and residents of the area were moved to New Halfa east of Sudan.
3. Egypt masterminded and fully supported the 1969 military coup of Nimirie. Members of the coup command council were a mix of Arab Nationalists, communists and leftists.
With all this background of deep relations between the two nations and observing the circumstantial political enviormnet these days, I think Egypt will not dare to launch any direct visible or tangible military aggression against Sudan for the following reasons:
1. Any such attack or aggression will make 90% of the Sudanese people united under Al Bashir – similar to what had happened when the ICC issues the arrest warrant against him. Sure Egypt does not want this, Whey want to change the regime.
2. Such aggression from Egypt will bolster the relation between Sudan and Ethiopia which might culminate the joint defence agreement. Egypt doesn’t not want this.
3. Any attack by Egypt on Sudan will make it difficult and complex for Egypt to climb on board of the ship of the nascent alliance of Gulf States, America, Europe against the Islamic Movement sponsored by Qatar, Turkey and Iran.
4. Finally, the direct aggression will justify any open and direct support by Sudan to Islamic groups to attack Egypt. Sudan can openly give the logistics, arms, money, sanctuary and safe haven to the Muslim Brotherhood Movement.
Hover, Egypt regime is definitely uncomfortable with the Islamic regime of Sudan, so it will work to shake and disturb the regime of Sudan by intelligence activities and clandestine arm support to rekindle wars in South Kordoan, Darfur and the Blue Nile.
So, the only way to defuse the potential threat of Egypt is to work genuinely without delaying and foot-dragging tactics to sit with the four signatories of the roadmap and give-in with tolerance to reach an agreement with the actual elements causing the unrest, instability, resentment and international anxiety, US sanctions and UNSC resolution under Chapter VII.
It is clear that the Roadmap is the safest exit to circumvent potential probability of slipping into chaos or uprooting the regime.
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