This year the national cereal production is estimated at 8 million
MT—a 70 per cent increase compared to the five-year average Levels of acute malnutrition are likely to decrease in most parts of the country during the February to April harvest period.
The 2016/2017 national cereal production is estimated at 8 million metric tons(MT)—a 70 per cent increase compared to the five-year average—according to preliminary findings of a joint crop and food supply assessment mission (CFSAM) led by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MoAF) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
This was reported in the latest Sudan Food Security Outlook report (February – September 2017), issued by FEWS NET. Higher yields of sorghum, millet and wheat.
The above-average rainfall from June to October 2016 encouraged farmers to cultivate larger areas of land resulting in higher yields of sorghum and millet. The expected wheat harvest in March 2017 is estimated at 0.48 million MT, which is similar to production in 2015/16 and about 20 – 25 percent higher than the five-year average.
Sorghum production is expected to be about 1.5 million MT above domestic requirements, and millet is expected to be 500,000 MT above domestic requirements. However, wheat production is estimated at 500,000 MT, which only covers about 20 percent of the annual domestic wheat consumption.
Due to the favourable rainfall in 2016, livestock and herd sizes have returned to normal in most pastoral and agro-pastoral areas following the dryness associated with El Ni?o in 2015.
As a result, FEWS NET assumes that livestock prices will remain above average and income from the sale of livestock will remain close to normal levels.
Below-average harvests expected in some areas Despite this expected increase in national cereal production, erratic distribution of rainfall and dry spells during critical growth periods in parts of South Kordofan, North Kordofan, West Kordofan, North Darfur, East Darfur and West Darfur states have led to localised below-average production. Most likely outcomes from February to September 2017
Levels of acute malnutrition are likely to improve in most parts of the country during the February to April harvest period. This is mainly due to increased access to food as a result of the above average 2016/2017 harvest, low staple food prices, and improved purchasing power.
FEWS NET projects that the prevalence of acute malnutrition will remain serious with global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates between 10-15 per cent from February to September 2017. Critical levels of GAM (less than 15 per cent) are expected to persist in vulnerable states such as Blue Nile, Central Darfur, North Darfur, Kassala, Red Sea and South Kordofan. The Report also highlighted on some of the reasons for these improvement in the food security situation which included ;in January 2017, the U.S. government partially lifted the year old economic sanctions against Sudan, based in part on improved security conditions in conflict-affected states of Sudan and relative improvements in humanitarian access. Nevertheless, humanitarian access in SPLM-N-controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile states remains limited Unilateral ceasefires declared by the Government of Sudan and armed opposition groups have reduced conflict and population displacements in South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and the Darfur states.
However, conflict and severe food insecurity in South Sudan has caused substantial influxes of refugees into Sudan, including the arrival of 32,000 new refugees since the beginning of 2017.
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